Monday, October 31, 2011

The Back Workout

I started lifting weights when I was about 17. I was on the high school rugby team, and I thought that I should bulk up in order to be able to play more competitively. Today, I no longer play rugby, but going to the gym is one of my greatest hobbies nonetheless. When I can find the time in my busy schedule, I'll go work out for at least an hour. Unless you drop a weight on your toe, I have a hard time imagining a workout that leaves you in a worse mood than when you started. I always finish feeling amazing and feeling stronger. And even though I don't play any high-contact sports, I've really found that my increased strength over the years has made me a much better and more competitive soccer player.

Considering I'm not a very big guy, I mostly focus on mass building. This means that I tend to choose exercises that work out more than one muscle group at a time, and that I lift heavy, with lower reps, and higher sets. For example, during a bench press, I might lift about 155 pounds, 6 times for each set, with 5 sets in total. A toning exercise might be more focused on lifting much lighter weights, but many more times.

With mass building at the core of my workout routine, I thought I was seeing pretty good results. But after a while, your muscles get accustomed to the same workouts, and don't improve. Sometimes, I don't even wake up sore the next day (yes, I want that!)!

The other day, however, I decided to completely switch up my routine, focusing more on high rep exercises, and I was sore for almost a week. For any of you mass-builders who are looking for a bit of diversity in their workouts, here is the workout that I did that day. I was working out my back:
1.  Shoulder wide grip pull-ups - 3 sets x maximum reps
2.  Lat pull downs - 4 sets x 10 reps (last set, slow down your reps significantly)
3.  Standing rows - 4 sets x 8 reps (last set is a drop set with 6 reps for each set)
4.  Rows (on the machine) - 4 sets x 10 reps (second to last set is slow, last set is VERY slow)
5.  Cable rows - 4 sets x 8 reps
6.  Deadlifts - 3 sets x max reps with 155 pounds.

I didn't include the weights I used in this routine (save exercise 6) since anybody who would try this routine should focus on completing the prescribed amount of reps without sacrificing quality and form. Also, don't forget to actually slow down when the program tells you to! This is an extremely important component of the workout since it's a lifting concept that your muscles are not very used to.

Superbowl contenders

I've been a fan of the Green Bay Packers since I was about eight years old. When I turned eight, I went to Toys'R'Us and bought my first ever football video game: Quarterback Legends '97 for the Nintendo 64. On the cover of the game was a picture of the legendary Brett Favre; his arms were raised in excitement, and the green and gold 'G' on his helmet seemed to glisten. That year, Favre won the MVP award, and led the Packers to a Superbowl. He instantly became my favourite player. Even though Favre changed teams near the end of his career, I stuck with my Packers, and last year, the Packers Nation was rewarded with a Superbowl victory under the leadership of Aaron Rodgers; a young quarterback whose legend has only begun.

Nearly halfway through the 2011-2012 season, it's looking like the Packers might be able to pull off a repeat of last year. At 7-0, the team has the best record in the NFL. Their offence has no trouble scoring points, and if he continues this level of performance for the remainder of the season, Aaron Rodgers might have a great chance to win league MVP. With a QB rating of 125.7, he has shown the NFL that he is quite possibly the most dangerous quarterback in the league. Tom Brady comes at a distant second with 104.4.

Despite his 'second-place status' in QB rating, to leave Tom Brady out of any Superbowl equation is unwise. Firstly, he's got an uncanny ability to close games. While Brady is a quarterback with exceptional skill, it is his ability to win close games and his poise during the last minutes of the game that drive fear into the hearts of his opposing defenders. Secondly, as long as Bill Belichick is head coach of the New England Patriots, Brady and his team will always be Superbowl contenders.

Having played in three of the last six Superbowl finals, the Steelers also tend to be big contenders. With a record of 6-2, they lead the AFC. This team has consistently produced defensive powerhouses over the last few years, and this year is no exception. The hard-hitting black and yellow are always looking to give their fans reason to wave the Terrible Towel, and after losing in a tight Superbowl final last year to Green Bay, you can be sure that they're hungry for revenge.

Yes, there are other teams in the league that have had promising beginnings to the season, but the Packers, the Patriots, and the Steelers are really the hottest of the bunch. With another nine weeks of regular football to go, there's plenty of time for other teams to step up their game, and make it to my next post!

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Netflix Success Train

I was going to write about sports, but I felt that this post would be way more compelling! Not too long ago, during the summer, I looked into possibly investing in Netflix. In Canada, I had noticed that the company's brand power was growing. Consumers were being persuaded that the unlimited streaming of videos for $7.99 a month was a more attractive model than the Blockbusters brick-and-mortar DVD rental stores. A quick look at the company's statement of income also showed that revenues had been increasing by substantial amounts for many quarters.

Despite all this perceived value, one look at the stock price turned me off completely: around $250 per share. This represented a price per earnings multiple of about 61.5x EPS. Clearly, I wasn't the only one that thought the company had potential for growth. I was convinced that the high valuation was the result of speculation, and did not necessarily represent the fair value of the stock. I thought that the price would have to come down one day, and the door would be open for value investors to reap some of the success of this amazing company.

Alas, Netflix has made some interesting business decisions of late, and their share price has taken a hit. Today, the stock closed at $79.40 on the Nasdaq. That's a 74% decrease from their high of $304.79 in mid-July. What caused such a drop? Realizing that the company's future lies primarily in online-streaming, rather than DVD direct mailing, Netflix had decided to launch a new, separate brand, Qwikster, for its DVD mailing service. This move was not looked at favourably by investors, and Netflix immediately retracted this idea. The damage was done, however, and the brand reputation has some lost ground to recover now. To make matters worse, the company lost 800,000 subscribers in the third quarter after a price increase was implemented for the DVD end of the business.

Most people would consider this bad news, but I see it as an opportunity. The share's P/E multiple is now at about 18x EPS, which is in line with a more "average" growth stock. However, considering Netflix has only begun to expand to the international market, there is so much more potential for Netflix to succeed, in comparison to the "average" growth stock.

Netflix will expand to Ireland and the UK in the first quarter of 2012 and it will continue to invest in its growing operations in Canada and Latin America. The company predicts losses on the international playing field for some time because of high marketing costs, and investment costs related to the purchasing of licenses to stream material. In my opinion, Netflix will recoup this investment, and be rewarded handsomely for years to come. Netflix has demand-side economies of scale, which means that the more subscribers the company attracts, the more value it can deliver to each customer. Once a customer base is established internationally, more and more consumers will be attracted to Netflix, and the company's growth will catch like a flame.

Another obstacle for Netflix' success is their streamable content. One of the company's biggest strengths is its massive library of content. But licenses for streaming seem to be harder to come by than the DVD counterpart. Some licenses are held exclusively by competitors, and it's also possible that some studios avoid selling licenses to Netflix because they are worried that the company will become too powerful. Despite these difficulties, Netflix continues to invest aggressively in their content library, and it seems that the company's libraries will only continue to expand.

All this to say that despite the significant devaluation of its share price, Netflix still has so much to offer consumers around the world, and its international expansion has only begun. For investors, this could be an amazing opportunity to get on the Netflix success train for cheap. If things don't go so well at first, be patient, and remember that this company has great potential to deliver on the long-run.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

To invest, or not to invest?

About a year ago, I started taking my investing seriously. I personally researched the industries and companies that I was interested in so that I would not only reap the profits of a good portfolio, but also gain some valuable experience with regards to the stock market. At first, I was successful. Now, I am not. Whatever gains I previously enjoyed have been erased. Thanks to the war in Libya, the earthquake in Japan, debt issues in the US, and most recently, potential financial catastrophe in Europe, my portfolio has suffered.
But, I am not a speculator. I am an investor. Rather than try and bet on the short-term reactions of the market, I conduct research, evaluate growth opportunities, and invest in companies that I think will flourish in the long-run. Consequently, I've decided to shut my eyes to the daily ups and downs of my own portfolio, remaining confident that my stocks will outlast the recent pessimism that plagues them.
Instead, I've been paying much closer attention to the stocks that are not in my portfolio.... I'm looking for my next investment. The markets haven't been very inspiring of late, but on the upside, stocks are incredibly discounted, and artificially cheap. The fall in stock prices is the result of the market's pessimism and does not necessarily reflect companies' inability to grow or remain profitable. I believe that our politicians will succeed, and that they will lead our nations through today's economic problems. I believe that there will be a 'next bull market'. And so, I believe that when some of the best growth stocks are trading at multiples of 10-13x EPS, there is some money to be made in the long run.
The only question is: is the timing right? In the past few days, the markets have rallied and investors have enjoyed some significant gains. Are these signs of optimism long-lasting, or are they just over-reactions to recent news? In my opinion, the optimism will be short lived. Until actual policies are put into effect, and concrete, positive results follow suit, I think the market will continue to over-react to news, regardless of whether it's positive or negative.
Finally, I ask myself: "To invest, or not to invest?". For now, I am going to continue playing the waiting game. Stay tuned to see what happens next!